A few examples
Here are a few examples of cognitive bias that provide a clue to the costs of irrational thinking.
Should the outcome of a parole hearing depend on the time of day when
the hearing was held? In theory, the time of the hearing should be
irrelevant. In practice, our ability to consciously weigh the facts and make
a decision is not much different than our physical endurance. It is finite
and limited, and can even be affected by blood glucose levels. These
limitations can be found everywhere in society, from consumer decisions to
dieting, from military tactics to personal relationships.
This fascinating article shows just how predictable (and, in some cases, avoidable) our failures are.
"Amanda was a great manager with a situation problem—she needed to eliminate the distraction. What looks like a people problem is often a situation problem. How can you make your people better at work by changing their environment?"
"These aren't your basic video gaming systems here. The US government gave Raytheon BBN Technologies a $10.5 million today to develop what it called 'serious games' that result in better decision-making by teaching players to recognize and diminish the effects of their own biases when analyzing information used to make decisions."
"Unbeknownst to the subjects, the lifeline was actually composed of false answers to the very questions that the subjects had previously answered correctly and confidently. Remarkably, this false feedback altered the responses of the participants, leading nearly 70 percent to conform to the group and give an incorrect answer. They had revised their stories in light of the social pressure. "
Copyright 2011 Rational Future Institute NFP